Only on O2 – but for how long?

Over the weekend, El Reg alerted me to a blog post at Omio which reckons Orange will be the next iPhone provider in the UK. The original iPhone was only launched in four countries – the US (AT&T), UK (O2), France (Orange) and Germany (T-Mobile) – and none of those carriers have so far lost the exclusive deal to sell iPhones in their markets.

How long are these exclusive deals?

Obviously, this has not been disclosed. But it is likely that the exclusivity runs for at least the initial contract length, from the launch date of the phone in that country. So at a minumum, I believe this gives us:

How could Orange sell the iPhone later this year?

Well it’s not all good for the carriers. Continuing exclusivity is likely to be contigent on at least:

• Selling a certain number of iPhones; and
• Returning a certain level of revenue for Apple, from the original model’s tariff-sharing agreement

Plus a host of other conditions, I’m sure.

Bearing in mind the lacklustre sales of the original iPhone in the UK, O2 may not have met the conditions for continuing exclusivity. Also, unless the exclusive carriers are really making it worth Apple’s while, it is no longer necessarily advantegeous to Apple to have single-carrier deals. They are likely to sell many more phones with more carrier partners per country.

The rumour mill had Orange carrying the iPhone in the UK, right up until the last minute when O2 super-sweetened the deal, so they do have a strong relationship. Plus they already sell the iPhone in France. Although I think it unlikely that we’ll see O2 losing exclusivity before the middle of 2009, more availability and competition on tariffs can only be good for the customer.

But why just Orange? The other UK carriers – T-Mobile, Vodafone and 3 – are lined up to sell the iPhone in other markets, and I’m sure they’ll be looking to bring the iPhone to the UK as well.